The S&P 500 snapped its nine-week winning streak with its biggest weekly decline since May 2025. Nasdaq posted its worst week since April 2025, down 4.7% for the five sessions. A red-hot May jobs report (172K vs 80K expected) spiked rate hike odds and crushed risk appetite, compounding the Broadcom-led semiconductor selloff from Thursday.
| Ticker | Close | Change | From 52W High |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO Broadcom |
$385.73 | -7.92% | -22.1% |
| CRWV CoreWeave |
$100.39 | -7.07% | -46.3% |
| TSM TSMC |
$415.17 | -6.69% | — |
| TSLA Tesla |
$391.00 | -6.56% | -21.6% |
| ASML ASML Holding |
$1,641.74 | -6.59% | — |
| NVDA NVIDIA |
$205.10 | -6.20% | -13.3% |
| META Meta Platforms |
$593.00 | -5.51% | -25.5% |
| AMZN Amazon |
$246.03 | -3.06% | -11.7% |
| MSFT Microsoft |
$416.67 | -2.66% | -25.0% |
| AAPL Apple |
$307.34 | -1.25% | -3.0% |
| GOOGL Alphabet |
$368.53 | -0.98% | -9.8% |
All 11 watchlist names closed red. 9 of 11 exceeded the 2% threshold. Semis were the epicenter: SOXX and PSI ETFs both down 10%+.
$385.73 — down 22% from Wednesday's all-time high of $495. Two-day cumulative loss after Q2 earnings that actually beat on revenue and EPS. The "miss" was guidance: Q3 AI chip revenue guided $16B vs street at $17.2B, and FY27 $100B AI target reiterated (not raised) against street models of $114B.
Analyst consensus remains bullish. Jefferies raised PT to $550. Oppenheimer to $535 (from $450). KeyCorp to $575 (from $500). TD Cowen reiterated Buy at $500. UBS reiterated Buy at $485. The one bear: Macquarie downgraded to Neutral ($437 PT), citing Google's push to develop AI chips in-house.
Historical pattern: AVGO has had 39 one-day drops of 6%+ since 2009. Higher 80% of the time after 1 month (median +8%), 90% after 3 months (median +20%), and 100% (all but one case) after 1 year (median +61%).
Consider: The catalyst gap (held, didn't raise guidance) is not a demand problem. This is a crowded-trade blowout, not a fundamental breakdown. Worth building a position at these levels if you believe the $100B FY27 target is conservative. Watch for stabilization Monday -- if buyers step in, the setup strengthens.
$205.10 — down 6.2% today, 13.3% below 52-week high. No NVIDIA-specific bad news. This is pure contagion from the AVGO selloff and the broader semi rotation. NVDA remains the undisputed leader in AI GPUs with no credible threat to its data center dominance in the near term.
Consider: If AVGO's "miss" was about custom ASICs losing some share to in-house chips, that's arguably a positive for NVDA (the alternative to custom silicon is GPU). A pullback to $205 with the AI infrastructure buildout still accelerating is worth watching for entry points in the $195-200 range.
$593.00 — down 5.5%, 25.5% below 52-week high. The Financial Times reported Meta is exploring a "tens of billions" stock offering to fund AI infrastructure, with capex projected at $145B this year and higher in 2027. This follows Alphabet's $84.75B upsized equity offering.
Fundamentals remain strong -- Arete upgraded to Buy with $735 PT on June 2, citing flexible cost base and high-margin subscription model. But dilution at these levels would be painful.
Consider: Wait for clarity on the offering size and timing before adding. If the deal is priced at current levels, it creates significant overhang. Not yet an entry point.
May NFP: 172K vs 80K expected. Unemployment steady at 4.3%. Previous two months revised up by 93K additional jobs. The labor market is hotter than anyone expected.
CME FedWatch now shows 51% probability of a rate hike at the late-October meeting (up from 34% yesterday), and 70% for December. The 10-year jumped 7 bps to 4.55%. This is a regime shift for tech multiples if it holds -- higher rates compress growth valuations directly.
Consider: The entire watchlist is rate-sensitive growth. If the Fed actually hikes, every name on this list faces multiple compression. Monday's reaction will be telling -- if semis can't bounce after a two-day washout, the trade is changing character. Position sizing matters more than entry prices right now.
| Ticker | Firm | Action | PT |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | Macquarie | Downgrade to Neutral | $437 |
| AVGO | Jefferies | PT raised | $550 |
| AVGO | Oppenheimer | PT raised | $535 |
| AVGO | KeyCorp | PT raised | $575 |
| AVGO | UBS | Reit. Buy, PT trimmed | $485 |
| GOOGL | New Street Research | PT raised | $455 |
| META | Arete | Upgrade to Buy | $735 |