Geopolitical sell-off hits tech after record highs. Broadcom delivers after the bell. Several names flagged.
All three major indexes closed at record highs Tuesday, then reversed hard Wednesday on Iran launching missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain, sending oil prices higher and triggering a broad risk-off move. The S&P 500 fell roughly 0.7%, the Dow dropped about 1%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%. The AI/semi complex took a hit, but the selling was geopolitically driven, not fundamental.
| Ticker | Close | Change | % Move | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | $110.93 | -$8.34 | -6.99% | High Beta |
| NVDA | $214.75 | -$8.07 | -3.62% | Entry? |
| MSFT | $427.34 | -$13.97 | -3.17% | Entry? |
| AMZN | $250.02 | -$6.50 | -2.53% | |
| TSM | $436.69 | -$10.00 | -2.24% | |
| AAPL | $310.26 | -$4.94 | -1.57% | |
| GOOGL | $358.99 | -$2.86 | -0.79% | Digesting |
| AVGO | $479.23 | -$2.34 | -0.49% | Earnings |
| TSLA | $423.70 | -$0.04 | flat | |
| ASML | $1,726.36 | +$20.99 | +1.23% | |
| META | $622.98 | +$25.35 | +4.24% | Bounce |
The headline: Broadcom guided Q3 revenue of approximately $29.4 billion, blowing past the Wall Street consensus of $28.54 billion by roughly 3%. Reuters confirmed the beat within minutes of the release.
Q2 expectations going in: Revenue of $22.0-22.13B (+47% YoY), adjusted EPS of $2.40 (+52% YoY). Broadcom has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters (avg surprise +1.93%). AI semiconductor revenue was expected at $10.7B (+140% YoY), representing nearly half of total revenue.
Q3 guidance context: A $29.4B guide vs $28.54B consensus signals accelerating AI demand through the back half of 2026. HSBC raised their price target to $600 (34% upside) on Monday, specifically citing a second-half AI revenue ramp. 44 of 47 analysts rate AVGO as Buy.
Why it matters: This is the single most important earnings print for the semi complex this week. A strong AVGO report with above-consensus guidance validates the entire AI capex cycle thesis and should lift the group tomorrow -- especially NVDA, TSM, ASML, and CRWV. AVGO hit an intraday high of $495 today (just 1% from ATH of $488.82, which appears to have been surpassed), so the stock was already running into the print. Watch for the after-hours reaction once the call is underway.
What happened: Sold off on geopolitics (Iran-Kuwait) and broad tech rotation, not fundamental deterioration. Closed near the day's low of $214.51.
Why it's interesting: Consensus price target is $305.38 (42% upside). 50 of 53 analysts rate it Buy. The stock is still 9% below its 52-week high of $236.54. If AVGO's Q3 guidance lifts the semi group tomorrow, NVDA could snap back hard. Cathie Wood added to her NVDA position today, cutting AMD.
Consider: A dip-buy makes sense here if you believe the geopolitical sell-off is temporary (it usually is) and the AI cycle is intact (AVGO's guidance says it is). The $210-215 zone has acted as support recently.
What happened: FTC broadened its antitrust probe into Microsoft's licensing, cloud, and AI software bundling practices. Also caught crossfire from Trump's AI "Cyber Defense" executive order (voluntary model review before public release) and Nadella's insider sale.
Why it's interesting: Q3 earnings were strong ($61.9B revenue +13%, Azure +31%). The stock is now 23% below its 52-week high of $555.45 -- lowest valuation in a decade on a forward P/E basis. Wedbush's Dan Ives says the market is "mispricing" MSFT.
Consider: This is a name that keeps getting cheaper on headline risk while the business keeps accelerating. The FTC probe is headline noise until it becomes something real. At $427, you're buying Microsoft at a historically cheap multiple. A $190B capex commitment for AI infra is bold but signals conviction.
What happened: Strongest day in weeks after a brutal stretch that took the stock 22% off its all-time high of $796.25. Likely driven by sentiment improvement around its AI chip partnership with Broadcom and general tech rotation.
Why it's interesting: Despite the bounce, META is still more than $170 below its ATH. Capex fears have been the dominant overhang, but AVGO's strong AI guidance tonight indirectly validates Meta's AI infrastructure spending.
Consider: Watch whether this bounce has follow-through tomorrow, especially on AVGO's results. If it holds above $600, the worst of the capex-fear selling may be done.
What happened: Alphabet upsized its equity offering to $84.75B (from $80B) -- the largest tech equity raise ever and its first since 2005. The offering includes $18B common stock, $16.75B mandatory convertible preferred at 6.25% yield, $10B private placement to Berkshire Hathaway, and a $40B at-the-market program in Q3.
Why it's interesting: Stock dropped 3.86% Tuesday on the announcement but stabilized today (-0.79%). The $358 support level held. Dilution is roughly 1.8% on a $4.4T market cap. Berkshire investing $10B is a massive endorsement from the world's most respected capital allocator. The offering prices on Thursday.
Consider: The panic selling was Tuesday. If $358 support holds through the offering close, this sets up a buyable dip. GOOGL still trades at a reasonable multiple given 63% Cloud growth. The AI capex story is real -- demand exceeds supply, per Alphabet's own framing.
AVGO earnings call (tonight): Conference call commentary will set the tone for the entire semi complex Thursday. Key question: how much AI revenue upside is in the Q3 guide? Custom ASIC shipments to Google and Meta accelerating could be a multi-quarter tailwind.
GOOGL equity offering closes June 4: Common stock pricing finalized Thursday. Any post-close buying pressure from index funds and arbitrageurs could provide a short-term bid.
Iran-Middle East developments: If tensions de-escalate overnight, today's geopolitical selling could reverse quickly. If they escalate, oil goes higher and risk-off continues.
Trump tariff proposal: Administration proposed double-digit tariffs on dozens of trading partners. Details still emerging -- watch for specifics on tech hardware and semiconductor imports.
SpaceX IPO roadshow starts June 5: Targeting NASDAQ debut June 12 at ~$1.75T valuation, $75B raise. Could absorb some institutional capital from other tech names.