Monday, May 25, 2026 -- Memorial Day (US markets closed) | Next open: Tuesday, May 26
The US and Iran have agreed in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under a 60-day ceasefire extension (Axios, confirmed by US official Sunday).
Why it matters for Tuesday: If the deal holds through the weekend, expect a relief bid at Tuesday's open. Lower oil = lower inflation anxiety = positive for tech/semis. If Iran pushback dominates headlines, oil reprices higher and risk appetite contracts.
Warsh was sworn in and elected FOMC Chair on Thursday. This is not a data point -- it's a policy psychology shift. A more hawkish/reform-oriented Fed raises the hurdle for long-duration equities. Rate expectations are now a live risk factor, not comfortable background support.
The market can still rally under Warsh, but it becomes less forgiving. Cleaner evidence required: better margins, stronger order books, closer catalysts.
Your $300K META-to-semi rotation plan (formed May 21) has its first execution window Tuesday May 26. Markets were closed through Memorial Day weekend.
Friday closes on your targets:
Setup context:
Timing risk: Core PCE drops Thursday. If it runs hot, your freshly-entered semi positions could face immediate pressure from rate repricing. If Iran deal solidifies, oil-driven inflation relief could offset. Consider whether to deploy full size Tuesday or scale in through the week.
Planned allocation: NVDA 30% ($90K), TSM 25% ($75K), ASML 20% ($60K), AMAT 10% ($30K), AVGO 10% ($30K), Cash 5% ($15K).
MRVL reports after close Wednesday. This is the most important earnings event of the week for your semi thesis.
Why it matters: NVDA already proved the cycle. The market now needs MRVL to confirm that demand is flowing into custom silicon, networking, and interconnect -- the broader semi stack your rotation is betting on. A strong guide lifts all semis. A miss could trigger sector-wide profit-taking right as you're entering.
Tuesday May 26 -- Markets reopen. Consumer Confidence. First tape read after 3 days of Iran headlines. Gap direction matters.
Wednesday May 27 -- MRVL, CRM, SNOW, SNPS earnings cluster. Main AI infrastructure + enterprise software test.
Thursday May 28 -- GDP 2nd estimate, Durable Goods, Personal Income/Outlays, Core PCE (the big one). DELL and COST earnings. First major inflation read under Warsh.
Friday May 29 -- Digestion. Market decides if the rally broadens or starts pulling back.
Reminder: CPI already ran hot at 3.8% YoY (May 12). If PCE confirms sticky inflation, "higher for longer" narrative strengthens under Warsh. 30-year yield already at 5.19% (highest since 2007). 10-year at 4.57%.
Indices: S&P 500 7,473 (+0.4%, 8th straight weekly gain) | Dow 50,580 (record close) | Nasdaq 26,344 (+0.2%, near ATH) | Russell 2000 +2.7% for week, near record.
Bull case: Iran deal formalizes, oil drops further, Consumer Confidence holds, MRVL/CRM beat and guide up, PCE cools. Semis extend, rotation entry looks well-timed.
Base case: Iran headlines stay mixed, oil volatile, earnings split winners/losers, PCE keeps Fed cautious. Selective, event-driven tape. Your rotation works if you pick your spots.
Bear case: Hormuz talks stall, crude rebounds above $100, PCE runs hot, yields spike, MRVL disappoints. High-multiple growth faces compression. Worst timing for full deployment.