Indexes closed May at record highs. June opens with NVIDIA's Computex bombshell, an oil spike on US-Iran strikes, and the biggest earnings + macro week in a month.
Trading at $446.77, touching a new all-time high of $448.90. Up nearly 30% YTD. The big catalyst: earnings Wednesday June 3 after close.
Consensus: Revenue $22.0B (+47% YoY), adj. EPS $2.39 (up from $1.58 a year ago). AI semiconductor revenue guided at $10.7B for FQ2, implying 140% YoY growth. Management has line of sight to $100B+ AI revenue by 2027 from custom ASIC deals with Google, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI.
Analyst moves: UBS raised PT to $490 from $475. Susquehanna raised PT to $490 from $450. 10 of 11 tracked analysts rate it Buy. Average PT $467 (~5% upside from Friday close).
Watch for: Options pricing a 9% swing by end of week. Upside scenario: beat + raised guidance could push toward $487. Downside: Anthropic's TPU order restructuring excluded rack-level revenue, lowering Broadcom's 2026 AI revenue estimate from ~$62.5B to ~$55B. If management addresses this on the call, it could weigh on sentiment even if Q2 beats.
Trading at ~$216 pre-market (Friday close ~$211). Jensen Huang's Computex keynote delivered two major announcements:
1. RTX Spark / N1X PC chip: NVIDIA's first consumer PC processor, co-developed with Microsoft and MediaTek. ARM-based with Blackwell GPU, designed to run AI agents locally. Laptops from Lenovo, HP, Dell, ASUS, Microsoft Surface, and MSI shipping this fall. This is NVIDIA entering the PC market directly -- an existential threat to Intel and AMD in consumer PCs.
2. Vera Rubin in full production: Next-gen data center AI chips are live. Dell confirmed delivery of Vera Rubin NVL72 racks to CoreWeave.
Collateral damage: Qualcomm -8.6%, Intel -4%, AMD -4%, Apple -1%. The PC market is being restructured in real time.
Riding the NVIDIA partnership. The Surface Laptop Ultra powered by RTX Spark is the flagship device. Jensen positioned this as a three-year collaboration to "reinvent the PC." Microsoft benefits from the AI-PC narrative without the competitive threat that Intel/AMD/Qualcomm face.
Trading at $109.53. Dell confirmed delivery of Vera Rubin NVL72 racks to CoreWeave, validating its position as a lead customer for NVIDIA's latest data center hardware. Still volatile -- 52-week range $63.80 to $187.
| Ticker | Price | Pre-Mkt Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $211.14 | +2.4% | Computex N1X + Vera Rubin |
| MSFT | — | +3.3% | Surface Laptop Ultra / RTX Spark |
| AVGO | $446.77 | +4.7% | New ATH, earnings Wed |
| CRWV | $109.53 | +2.5% | Vera Rubin NVL72 delivery |
| TSM | $418.45 | -1.5% | Benefits as foundry for N1X |
| META | $632.51 | -0.4% | Quiet. Ex-div June 15 |
| AAPL | $312.06 | -1.0% | N1X competitive pressure on Apple Silicon |
| GOOGL | $380.34 | -2.5% | Broad pullback, no specific catalyst |
| AMZN | $270.64 | -1.2% | Broad pullback |
| TSLA | $435.79 | -1.4% | No specific catalyst |
ASML pre-market data not yet available (European hours). TSM's -1.5% is on Friday's session; it traded +1% in Taiwan on N1X foundry benefit.
Oil jumped 3%+ overnight. Brent at $93.80, WTI at $90.39. Over the weekend, the US struck Iranian air defenses and drone command sites. Iran's Revolutionary Guards retaliated against a US-used air base. Israel ordered troops deeper into Lebanon against Hezbollah.
The 60-day ceasefire framework is stalling. Trump said he'll make a "final determination" soon but gave no timeline. New reports that Iran dropped additional mines in the Strait of Hormuz last week. Analysts warn the market has not priced in an extended Hormuz closure -- upside risk to oil remains real.
For semis and tech: Higher oil = higher inflation fears = rate hike expectations. Markets currently price ~70% chance of a rate hike by year-end under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. This is the headwind that could cap the AI rally if it persists.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (10 AM ET) -- first read on May factory activity. Powell speech (Washington DC). Earnings: HPE, CRDO after close.
JOLTS Job Openings (10 AM ET). Earnings: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Dollar General (DG), Ulta (ULTA), GitLab (GTLB).
ADP Employment (8:15 AM ET). ISM Services (10 AM ET). Fed Beige Book (2 PM ET). Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO) after close -- this is the week's catalyst for semis. Also CrowdStrike (CRWD), Five Below (FIVE), Veeva (VEEV).
Weekly jobless claims. Earnings: Lululemon (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU), Rubrik (RBRK), Samsara (IOT), Planet Labs (PL).
Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment + Avg Hourly Earnings at 8:30 AM ET. April showed 115K jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%. Economists divided on whether strong recent prints reflect real strength or healthcare-driven anomaly. This is the binary macro event -- a hot print strengthens rate hike bets and pressures growth stocks.
AVGO into earnings: At new ATH with 30% YTD gains, the bar is high. The options market is pricing a $40 move either way. If you're sizing into the META-to-semi rotation, the question is whether you want exposure before or after the print. A beat with strong guidance could open a gap to $480+. A miss or weak Anthropic commentary could pull it to $406. This is Wednesday's event.
NVDA on N1X: The PC chip play is long-term structural but won't move the revenue needle for 12-18 months. The real near-term signal is Vera Rubin production confirmation. NVDA at $211 is still near the floor of its range (52-week low $133, high $237). The Computex tailwind could push it toward $220 this week if AVGO earnings confirm the AI capex story.
Oil / Inflation overhang: The US-Iran situation is the wild card. Last week oil dropped 11% on deal hopes; this week it's snapping back. If the ceasefire collapses, $100+ oil is back in play, and that changes the rate calculus for everything.