Pre-Market Scan

Broad Market -- Gap Up on Iran Deal Optimism

• S&P 500 enters on an 8-week winning streak.
• Oil crashed over the weekend on Iran MoU progress. Trump on Truth Social: talks "proceeding nicely." But overnight U.S. "self-defense" strikes on missile sites near Strait of Hormuz inject uncertainty.
• Brent at ~$96-98/bbl, down from $120+ in late April. Hormuz reopening within 30 days if MoU holds.
• Lower oil = inflation relief = less pressure for Fed hikes. Net positive for tech/semis.

No Mag 7 names triggered the +/-2% pre-market threshold on Friday's close. TSLA was the biggest mover at +1.95%. Chip stocks are leading futures gains today per Investopedia, so expect a gap-up at open.

ASML -- New All-Time High ATH

• Trading above the average analyst PT of $1,504. Top-end: Bernstein $1,971, Wells Fargo $1,750.
• Goldman reiterated Buy, hiked PT to ~$1,600 (May 13). UBS reiterated Buy. Barclays upgraded to Buy.
• Q1 EPS $7.15 beat consensus $6.59 by 8.5%. Revenue $8.77B beat by 1.6%.
• Signal: ASML is running hot. Your plan has it at 20% ($60K). At ATH with average PT below price, consider a partial entry today and leaving room to add on any PCE-driven pullback Wed.

NVDA -- In Your Entry Zone ENTRY ZONE

• Reported Q1 May 20: $81.62B revenue (+85% YoY), EPS $1.87 (beat by $0.11). Data Center $75.2B (+92%).
• At $215, sitting 33-38% below analyst targets post-beat. Post-earnings pullback from $221 high creates opportunity.
• Your plan: 30% allocation ($90K). This is your largest position -- strongest conviction entry today.
• Futures up ~1.4% suggests NVDA opens above $215. Could gap to $218-220 range at open.

TSM -- Steady

Close: ADR at ~$404.52 (-0.65%). No specific catalyst today. Your plan: 25% ($75K). Iran deal tailwind (lower oil = less inflation risk for capex-heavy names). Scale in alongside NVDA.

AVGO -- Earnings June 3 EARNINGS SOON

Close: $414.14 (-0.10%). Q2 2026 earnings estimated June 3. Consensus: EPS growth 65% to $16.36/share. Your plan: 10% ($30K). Consider waiting until after earnings to size up, or take a small starter position.

CRWV -- Volatile, Down Nearly 2% CAUTION

Close: $105.49 (-1.94%). Down from IPO-area highs of $187. High beta (1.64). Your existing plan says "stay away" from CRWV. No change to that assessment.

Key Reports Affecting Your Watchlist

• WED 5/27 Marvell (MRVL) -- Expected EPS $0.80, revenue $2.40B (+27% YoY). Goldman raised PT to $125 citing potential Google partnership and hyperscaler capex tailwinds. MRVL is at $196, near its 52-week high. This is the semi bellwether report of the week. A beat lifts the whole sector; a miss could drag your semis down.
• WED 5/28 Salesforce (CRM), Dell (DELL), Snowflake (SNOW) -- AI infrastructure / enterprise software reads.
• THU 5/29 Costco (COST) -- consumer read.
• JUN 3 Broadcom (AVGO) -- directly on your watchlist.

None of your direct watchlist stocks report today. MRVL tomorrow is the event risk that matters most.

Core PCE -- Wednesday May 28 HIGH IMPACT

• The Fed's preferred inflation gauge drops Wednesday morning.
• Core PCE was 3.06% YoY in January. Iran-driven energy inflation pushed headline CPI higher in Q2 (briefly spiked to ~6.0%).
• If core PCE comes in hot, expect bond yields to spike further (30-year already at 5.19%, highest since 2007) and growth/tech to sell off.
• If it comes in line or cool, the oil crash + Iran deal narrative reinforces "inflation peaking" and tech rallies harder.
• Implication for your rotation: Deploy capital in tranches. Don't go max exposure before the PCE print. Leave 30-40% of the $300K for post-PCE deployment.

Iran / Strait of Hormuz

• MoU reportedly progressing: 60-day window for final deal. Hormuz reopening potentially within 30 days.
• BUT: overnight U.S. strikes on missile launch sites and vessels around Hormuz. Sec. State Rubio said deal could "take a few days."
• Net read: market leaning optimistic (futures up, oil down), but binary risk remains. A deal collapse would spike oil back toward $110+ and hammer tech.

Fed Posture

• Recent Fed minutes: majority would consider rate hikes if inflation persists above 2%. Year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.8% (up from 3.4% pre-Iran conflict).
• Market pricing: ~60% chance of a hike by year-end.
• The oil decline is the single biggest variable that could shift this narrative dovish.

Recommended Approach for the $300K Rotation

• Tranche 1 (Today, ~$120-150K / 40-50%): Deploy into your highest-conviction names. NVDA is in the entry zone at $215 with 33-38% upside to analyst targets post-earnings beat. TSM as steady second leg.
• Tranche 2 (Wed-Thu, ~$90-120K / 30-40%): After MRVL earnings Wed evening and Core PCE Wed morning. Add to positions or adjust sizing based on how semis react.
• Tranche 3 (Next week, ~$30-60K / 10-20%): Reserve for AVGO around its June 3 earnings. Also gives you room if any of these names pull back on macro.

Key risk today: Futures are up ~1.4% on Nasdaq. If you're buying at the open, you're buying into a gap-up after a 3-day weekend. Consider using limit orders slightly below the opening print rather than market orders. NVDA at $215-217, TSM around $404-406.

ASML note: At ATH and above average analyst PT. It's your #1 chokepoint thesis stock, but chasing at ATH into a PCE print is aggressive. A half-position today + add on any Wed dip is cleaner.