Largest single-day move in weeks, driven by the Terafab catalyst. Elon Musk is keynoting ASML's private technology conference this Thursday -- the eve of SpaceX's IPO -- to pitch the $55-119B Terafab chip factory (joint venture between SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI). ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet says Musk is "very serious" and warned that AI demand could keep the semiconductor market supply-limited for years.
Musk posted on X: "ASML should be treasured. It is arguably the greatest company in Europe." Analysts hold a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $1,905 (~9% upside from here). Up 53% YTD. This stock is riding a structural catalyst, not just a bounce.
Bouncing back from the post-earnings selloff that cratered the entire Nasdaq on Friday. Q2 actuals: $2.44 EPS (beat by $0.04), $22.19B revenue (+47.9% YoY, beat consensus). The selloff was about management not raising guidance aggressively enough, not about fundamentals.
Bank of America raised its price target to $530 from $450 (Buy rating). Seeking Alpha: "recent dip is a buying opportunity" -- trading at 20x FY27 EPS with 60% projected sales growth. FY27 AI semiconductor revenue guidance reaffirmed at $100B+, with internal metrics implying potential for $200B. Currently 20% below its 52-week high of $495.
Rallied sharply Monday as the SpaceX IPO dominates sentiment. Pricing expected Thursday, trading begins Friday on Nasdaq. SpaceX is raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation -- the largest IPO in history. Tesla is a Terafab partner alongside SpaceX and xAI, and Intel has already secured Tesla as the first major customer for its next-gen 14A manufacturing process for Terafab chips.
Chips are extending their rebound for a second day after Friday's brutal selloff (Nasdaq -5%, worst day in a year). The bounce is broad-based:
| Ticker | Mon Close | Mon Chg | Tue PM | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $949.28 | +9.87% | +3.4% | Leading the rally |
| MRVL | $288.85 | +9.63% | +3.2% | Strong momentum |
| ASML | $1,749.04 | +6.54% | -- | Terafab catalyst |
| TSM | $426.80 | +2.80% | -- | Intel diversification narrative |
| AVGO | $396.60 | +2.82% | +1.3% | Post-earnings bounce |
| NVDA | $208.64 | +1.73% | +0.6% | Steady recovery |
| CRWV | $102.37 | +1.97% | -- | Tracking the sector |
| QCOM | -- | -- | +3.3% | Pre-market mover |
| INTC | -- | +9% | +2.0% | Google 3M TPU order |
Alphabet ordered 3 million tensor processing units from Intel's foundry for 2028 delivery (The Information, Monday). Nvidia is also evaluating Intel's technology for a multi-chip processor. This is a major vote of confidence in Intel's foundry turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and confirms AI demand is diversifying the supply chain beyond TSMC. Intel shares surged 9% on the news -- now up 169% YTD.
| Ticker | Mon Close | Mon Chg | Tue PM |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $301.54 | -1.89% | -0.3% |
| MSFT | $411.74 | -1.18% | -- |
| GOOGL | $363.31 | -1.42% | +0.6% |
| AMZN | $245.22 | -0.33% | -- |
| META | $585.39 | -1.28% | -- |
| NVDA | $208.64 | +1.73% | +0.6% |
| TSLA | $408.95 | +4.59% | +0.4% |
Monday was split: semis and Tesla rallied hard on dip-buying and SpaceX/Terafab catalysts, while software names (AAPL, MSFT, META, GOOGL) continued to consolidate. Apple is mid-WWDC but that hasn't provided a floor yet.
Iran and Israel exchanged strikes over the weekend -- the first since the April ceasefire -- then both said they halted operations after Trump urged them to stop. Oil spiked to $95.50 overnight before pulling back to ~$92 (WTI). The Strait of Hormuz remains shut, which is the single biggest variable for inflation and the CPI print Wednesday. A reopening would let the market dismiss energy-driven inflation as transitory. Without it, the Fed rate hike narrative gains traction.
Nasdaq plunged nearly 5% on Friday -- its worst day in a year. S&P 500 fell 2.6%, ending a 9-week winning streak. Dual trigger: Broadcom's guidance disappointment + the hot May jobs report (172K vs 85K expected) which repriced Fed rate expectations sharply higher. The Monday-Tuesday rebound in semis is classic dip-buying, but sustainability depends entirely on Wednesday's CPI.
Semis are bouncing hard and the Terafab/SpaceX narrative is giving ASML and TSLA real momentum. AVGO at $400 looks like the buy-the-dip opportunity that the market is pricing in -- BofA's $530 target implies 33% upside. But CPI on Wednesday is the trapdoor: a hot number could send everything back to Friday's lows, especially with the Fed already leaning hawkish. Position sizing matters here more than conviction. The SpaceX IPO Friday is a liquidity wildcard -- it could pull capital from existing AI/semi positions even as it validates the sector thesis.