The situation escalated rapidly after Tuesday's close. U.S. Central Command launched "self-defense strikes" on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz after an Apache helicopter was downed Monday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain -- the biggest outbreak of hostilities since the April ceasefire.
Trump posted overnight that Iran "would pay the price" after taking too long to negotiate, reversing his "deal in two to three days" rhetoric from Monday night.
Wall Street futures: S&P 500 -1% to -1.2%, Nasdaq futures even weaker. European STOXX 600 down 0.6%. Asia-Pacific MSCI down 2.3%. South Korean KOSPI (tech-heavy) lost 4.5%. Oil edging higher.
Watchlist impact: All positions will gap down. Semis and AI names facing double pressure from geopolitical risk plus ongoing sector rotation out of tech. This is a risk-off session unless CPI surprises to the downside.
The most important data print of the week drops this morning. Consensus estimates:
| Measure | Estimate | Prior |
|---|---|---|
| CPI MoM | +0.5% | -- |
| CPI YoY | +4.2% | -- |
| Core CPI MoM | +0.3% | -- |
| Core CPI YoY | +2.9% | -- |
Robinhood prediction markets price 76% chance CPI comes in above 4.1% YoY, and 55% above 4.2%. A hot print kills any remaining rate-cut hopes and adds fuel to the sell-off. A cool print could provide a floor for the dip.
PPI data follows Thursday. Oracle (ORCL) reports after today's close.
Tuesday was rough for tech despite a positive start. Nasdaq fell 1% at the close but was down over 3% intraday before recovering. Key moves yesterday:
| Stock | Tue Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Marvell (MRVL) | -12% | Chip sell-off leader |
| Arm Holdings (ARM) | -10% | AI chip weakness |
| Salesforce (CRM) | -5% | Dow's worst performer |
| NVDA, AMZN, MSFT | Down | Blue chip tech sold off |
| AAPL | Down | Among Dow laggards |
| Credo Tech (CRDO) | +6% | Hit ATH, data center connectivity |
| Micron (MU) | Mixed | Rebounded Mon +9.9%, Tue reversed |
The SpaceX IPO on Friday is sucking air from tech -- up to $86 billion in shares hitting the public market. This is capital rotation, not fundamental deterioration. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid: "Oscillating between 1999-style AI exuberance and 2000-type tech crash fears."
The chip sell-off is driven by capital rotation (SpaceX IPO) and geopolitical fear, not earnings misses or demand deterioration. NVDA and AVGO have been on your tranche entry radar since the June 5 selloff. If CPI comes in at or below consensus this morning, the combination of oversold semis + cooling inflation could set up a bounce.
Watch for: If the Nasdaq finds support at the 10-week moving average again (as it did Tuesday), that's a technical buy signal for short-term entries. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq held their 10-week MAs on Tuesday's intraday crash.
Key risk: A hot CPI print or further Iran escalation would push the sell-off deeper. Don't catch the knife before the 8:30 AM ET data.
| Ticker | Status | Wed Pre-Market Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Sold off Tue | Futures point to another gap down; in pullback zone |
| AVGO | Under pressure | Chip sector drag; BofA PT $530 still active |
| AAPL | Among Dow laggards Tue | Defensive relative to chips but still risk-off |
| MSFT | Sold off with tech Tue | Likely opens lower with futures |
| GOOGL | Tech basket pressure | Following Nasdaq futures lower |
| AMZN | Sold off Tue | No specific catalyst; macro-driven |
| META | Tech basket pressure | Following sector; no specific news |
| TSLA | Volatile | Following risk-off sentiment |
| ASML | Euro semis weak | European tech down, STOXX -0.6% |
| TSM | Asia semis weak | KOSPI -4.5% dragging Asian chips |
| CRWV | High-beta AI play | Volatile; high risk in this environment |
Announced Monday. No timeline given. Joins Anthropic (also filed) and SpaceX (Friday) in a wave of mega AI/tech IPOs testing investor appetite for unprofitable AI companies at massive valuations.
10Y Treasury: 4.53% (down from 4.55%) • VIX: Above 19, elevated • WTI Crude: ~$88/bbl (down Tue, edging up overnight on Iran) • Gold: ~$4,365/oz • Bitcoin: $62,400
Two live grenades this morning: Iran escalation and CPI data. Futures are down 1%+ and the entire watchlist will open red. No earnings from watchlist names this week, but Oracle tonight and SpaceX IPO Friday are shaping flows.
The chip pullback is getting extended on non-fundamental catalysts. If CPI is at or below consensus at 5:30 AM PT, watch for a reversal setup in NVDA and AVGO -- these are names that held your interest since June 5 and the discount is growing. But don't front-run the data. Wait for the print, then reassess.
No earnings on the watchlist today or within 3 days.