Watchlist Weekly

Week Ahead: June 1 -- 6, 2026

Published Sunday, June 1, 2026 · by Amika
All three major U.S. indexes closed May at record highs. The Nasdaq surged 25% over April and May combined -- its best two-month run since late 2002. The S&P 500 strung together nine consecutive winning weeks, its longest streak since 2023. But the rally is lopsided: only tech and financials among the eleven S&P sectors are at highs, and breadth on Friday was notably poor even as the index printed new records. The dominant story remains AI-driven semiconductor demand (Dell +104% in May, Micron +84%, ASML and TSM near all-time highs) running headlong into a macro backdrop of sticky inflation (PCE at 3.8% YoY) and a nascent Iran ceasefire that sent oil tumbling 11% on the week.

Weekly Scoreboard

Magnificent 7

AAPL
$312.06
+3.1% week
Near 52wk high $315
MSFT
$450.24
+5.4% Fri
Dev conf Tue-Wed
GOOGL
$380.34
-0.7% week
52wk high $408.61
AMZN
$270.64
+1.6% week
Blue Origin setback
NVDA
$211.14
-1.9% week
YTD +13.2%
META
$632.51
+4.1% week
YTD -4.2%, off Aug highs
TSLA
$435.79
+2.3% week
Cup-handle $453 buy pt

Semis & AI

AVGO
$446.77
+4.7% Fri
NEW ATH $448.90
ASML
$1,612.76
+0.4% Fri
52wk high, YTD +51%
TSM
$418.45
-1.5% Fri
52wk high $430, YTD +38%
CRWV
$109.53
+2.5% Fri
Backlog near $100B

Sector & Flow Signals

Money Chasing Tech, Fleeing Everything Else

  • Tech sector funds: 8th straight week of inflows ($2.75B in the week to May 27)
  • U.S. equity funds net +$1.97B after $12B of outflows the prior week
  • Asian equity funds: $3.92B of outflows; EM equities: 5th straight week of selling ($4.45B)
  • Gold funds saw $584M in outflows -- 4th decline in 5 weeks
  • David Rosenberg flags "bad breadth" -- only Tech and Financials at sector highs while the index prints records. Rare and historically fragile.

Oil & Geopolitics

  • Brent crude: $92.05/bbl (-11% week, -19% in May from $114 peak)
  • WTI: $87.36/bbl, lowest since April 17
  • US-Iran ceasefire reportedly reached May 28: 60-day extension, unrestricted Hormuz shipping, mine removal within 30 days. Trump has not approved. Iran says not finalized.
  • Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed since Feb 28. Even with a deal, normal flows could take months to restore.
  • Brookings estimates: once emergency reserves exhaust (~July), a 16% shortfall in global crude trade could spike prices well above $92.

Macro Snapshot

  • PCE inflation (Apr): 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023, driven by energy. Core PCE held at 3.3%. Expected to top 4% in May.
  • Q1 GDP: Revised down to 1.6% annualized from 2.0%.
  • Consumer confidence: 93.1, above the 92 consensus but still subdued.
  • Fed posture: Kevin Warsh took over as chair this month. Markets pricing 59% chance of a rate hike by year-end (LSEG). Governor Lisa Cook said she'd be "prepared to raise rates" if disinflation doesn't resume soon.
  • 10-Year Treasury: 4.45%, little changed.
  • Q1 earnings season (90% reported): S&P 500 earnings +23.9% YoY on +10.9% revenue. Strongest post-COVID period even ex-Mag 7.

Week Ahead Calendar

Sun 5/31
Fed speeches: Jerome Powell (Boston awards ceremony, still a governor post-chair). Christopher Waller speaks on stablecoins in Croatia.
Mon 6/1
Earnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Credo Technology (CRDO).
Data: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May), Construction Spending (Apr).
Tue 6/2
Earnings: Palo Alto Networks, Ulta Beauty, GitLab, Dollar General.
Data: JOLTS Job Openings (Apr).
Events: Arm Holdings Computex keynote. Microsoft dev conference kicks off.
Fed: Kashkari in Seoul, Hammack speaks.
Wed 6/3
Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO) Key Event, CrowdStrike (CRWD), Macy's, Medtronic, Five Below.
Data: ADP Private Payrolls, ISM Services PMI, Fed Beige Book, Factory Orders (Apr).
Fed: Governor Michael Barr speaks.
Thu 6/4
Earnings: Ciena (CIEN), lululemon, DocuSign, Planet Labs.
Data: Weekly Jobless Claims, Q1 Productivity Revision.
Events: Netflix annual stockholders meeting (6pm ET).
Fri 6/5
Data: May Nonfarm Payrolls Key Event (consensus ~105K, unemployment expected 4.4%), Consumer Credit (Apr).
This is the first major labor market read under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. A strong print cements rate-hike expectations; a miss reopens recession fears.

Earnings Spotlight: Broadcom (AVGO) -- Wed 6/3

Broadcom reports fiscal Q2 after the close Wednesday and enters the print at an all-time high of $448.90. This is the last major semiconductor earnings report of the cycle.

  • EPS estimate: $2.39 (+51% YoY). Revenue estimate: $22.0B (+47% YoY).
  • Street expectation: Beat-and-raise. Oppenheimer and Susquehanna both flagged upside from AI ASICs and networking demand.
  • AI revenue nuance: 2026 AI revenue guidance may come in around $55B (down from prior $62.5B) due to Anthropic's TPU order restructuring (excluding rack-level revenue). But 2027 AI revenue remains $100B+.
  • Fiscal 2026 consensus: EPS growth of 65%, revenue growth of 62%. Fiscal 2027: EPS +61%, revenue +57%.
  • Susquehanna PT: Raised to $490 from $450 ahead of the print.
  • Risk: AVGO is up ~90% from its 52wk low. Any guidance miss or AI revenue shortfall could trigger a sharp pullback from ATH.

Key Technical Levels

  • NVDA ($211): Fell back below 21-day EMA at Friday's close. Short trendline entry near $217. 52wk high at $236.54 (May 14) is the overhead target. In a mini-consolidation above its long base.
  • AVGO ($447): Holding first-stage cup base. Buy point $414.61, in the 5% buy zone up to $453. Above all key moving averages (50d: $383, 200d: $352). RSI 59 -- not overbought yet.
  • AAPL ($312): Brushing its 52wk high of $315. If it clears, uncharted territory.
  • TSLA ($436): Cup-with-handle base, buy point at $453.40. Six-day win streak snapped Friday. Relative strength line is "lackluster" per IBD.
  • META ($633): Down 20% from Aug 2025 ATH of $796. YTD -4.2%. Rosenblatt reiterated Buy at $1,015 this week. Still well below consensus target range ($760-$865).
  • ASML ($1,613): Hit 52wk high Friday. YTD +51%. Samsung and SK Hynix each placed ~$8B EUV orders recently.
  • TSM ($418): Trading within 3% of ATH ($430.55). 50d MA at $378. Capex tracking toward high end of $52-56B guidance for 2026.

Trade Ideas

1. AVGO Post-Earnings Reaction Play

Thesis

Broadcom has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters. The street is set up for a beat-and-raise on Wednesday. If the print delivers, the stock likely gaps above $450 and enters price discovery. If it disappoints on AI revenue guidance (the Anthropic reclassification is the wildcard), a pullback to the $415-$420 zone (breakout level / 21-day line) would be a high-conviction entry.

  • Entry: Buy above $453 on a gap-up confirming breakout, or buy a pullback to $415-$420 on a miss.
  • Risk: Below $383 (50-day MA) would break the structure. Pre-earnings positioning is risky at ATH -- sizing matters.

2. META as the Unloved Mag 7 Catch-Up

Thesis

META is the only Mag 7 name still negative YTD (-4.2%) and sits 20% below its August 2025 ATH. Consensus targets range from $750 to $1,015 -- all above current price. Rosenblatt reiterated Buy at $1,015 this week. The disconnect between META's fundamentals (still growing earnings double-digits) and its price action relative to peers suggests it's a laggard catch-up candidate if the broader AI/tech rally holds.

  • Entry: Current levels around $630-$635. Accumulate on any pullback toward the March low of $520.
  • Risk: If the Iran situation escalates again, META's ad revenue sensitivity to macro sentiment makes it vulnerable. Also watch for any escalation of Reality Labs spending concerns.
Data as of market close Friday, May 29, 2026. Not investment advice. Prices and estimates sourced from MarketBeat, WSJ, Reuters, Barron's, IBD, and Seeking Alpha.