Wall Street's nine-week winning streak ended violently on Friday. A hot May jobs report -- 172,000 additions versus 80,000 expected -- sent Treasury yields surging past 4.5% and traders scrambling to price in rate hikes, not cuts, by year-end. The Nasdaq cratered 4.2% on Friday alone (down 4.7% for the week, its worst since April 2025), with AI and semiconductor names absorbing the worst of it. Broadcom's clean Q2 beat was punished because management held, rather than raised, its $100 billion FY27 AI revenue target. The S&P 500 closed at 7,383.74, down 2.6% for the week. The week ahead is stacked: FOMC decision, May CPI, WWDC, the SpaceX IPO, and Oracle/Adobe earnings.
Friday close (June 5) vs. previous Friday (May 29). Approximate weekly change.
| Ticker | Price | Week | Fri Jun 5 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $307.34 | -1.5% | -1.3% | WWDC Mon |
| MSFT | $416.67 | -2.7% | -2.7% | |
| GOOGL | $368.53 | -3.1% | -1.0% | $85B offering |
| AMZN | $246.03 | -9.1% | -3.1% | Worst Mag 7 performer |
| NVDA | $205.10 | -2.7% | -6.2% | Fri selloff; AI rout |
| META | $593.00 | -6.3% | -5.5% | 25% off ATH ($788) |
| TSLA | $391.00 | -6.6% | -6.6% | High-beta damage |
| AVGO | $385.73 | -16.1% | -7.9% | Earnings selloff |
| ASML | $1,641.74 | -6.6% | -6.6% | |
| TSM | $415.17 | -0.8% | -6.7% | Mid-week rally erased Fri |
| CRWV | $100.39 | -19.6% | -7.1% | High-beta, post-IPO vol |
The Labor Department reported 172,000 nonfarm payrolls added in May, more than double the 80,000 consensus. Unemployment held at 4.3%. The 10-year yield jumped past 4.5%, and the 2-year hit 4.16%, its highest in a year. CME FedWatch now shows roughly 70% odds of a rate hike by year-end, up from under 50% pre-report. The "higher for longer" camp won this round decisively.
AVGO reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $22.2 billion (+48% YoY), with AI semiconductor revenue hitting $10.8 billion (+143% YoY). AI bookings hit $30 billion against $10.8 billion shipped. Q3 guidance: $29.4 billion revenue, $16 billion AI semis (+200% YoY). But management reiterated rather than raised the $100 billion FY27 AI revenue target, and the stock shed ~16% from its pre-earnings level. The $73 billion AI backlog is contracted demand -- this was a market sentiment problem, not a business problem.
The largest equity offering in history. The upsized deal includes $34.75 billion in public share sales, a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway, and a $40 billion at-the-market program through Q3. The capital funds AI compute infrastructure to meet what Alphabet called "unprecedented demand." Dilution concerns weighed on the stock early-week, though institutional buying (ARK Invest, Berkshire) partially cushioned the blow. GOOGL closed at $368.53, relatively resilient versus the broader Mag 7 rout on Friday (-1.0%).
WTI settled near $92 and Brent around $95, with both posting their first weekly gain in three weeks (+6% WTI) despite ceasefire optimism. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 28. A US-Iran 60-day MOU is reportedly "mostly agreed," awaiting Trump's sign-off, but Hezbollah rejected a Lebanon ceasefire -- a precondition for Tehran. JPMorgan warned that global inventories are depleting fast and a second price shock could hit by late June if Hormuz traffic doesn't normalize. US crude inventories including the SPR fell to 791 million barrels, their lowest since February 2024.
Markets expect a hold at 3.50-3.75%, but the signals matter more than the decision. Key watch: (1) removal of the "easing bias" language from the statement -- three members already voted to strip it in April, and Warsh can use this as his opening move to establish credibility; (2) the dot plot -- in March, zero officials projected a hike; this update could show multiple dots above current rates; (3) Warsh's tone at his first press conference. He was appointed for his dovish leanings, but the data is forcing a hawkish posture. Hot CPI on Wednesday could make his presser comments look cautious in hindsight.
Consensus: 4.3% YoY headline (up from 3.8% in April), 2.9% core. An upside surprise would be the third consecutive acceleration and would put CPI at a three-year high. Iran-driven energy prices are the main culprit -- gasoline estimated up 8% in May -- but core pressures from used autos and airline fares are building independently. A 4.5%+ print could trigger another leg down in tech. A benign number (sub-4.2%) would be a genuine relief rally catalyst.
Tim Cook's final major event as CEO. Expectations center on the long-delayed AI Siri overhaul: always-on, agentic, with a standalone app and camera integration. Wedbush's Dan Ives expects "fireworks" and has a Street-high $400 target. Options market pricing a ~3% swing in AAPL. Citi reiterates Buy. Analyst consensus mean target: ~$328 (7% upside). Risk: Apple has promised AI before and underdelivered, and a CPI miss on Wednesday could overshadow any Monday pop.
The largest IPO in history. $75 billion raise at $135/share, valuing SpaceX at $1.75 trillion. Already 2x oversubscribed. Morgan Stanley projects $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040. Morningstar is skeptical of the $28.5 trillion TAM claim. Musk retains 82.4% voting power. This will dominate market attention Thursday and Friday, and could absorb significant capital from existing tech positions.
Friday's action was textbook rate-shock rotation. The Dow fell only 1.3% while the Nasdaq dropped 4.2%. Banks and defensive names held up; AI, semis, and high-multiple growth got crushed. MU -13.3%, MRVL -10%+, ARM -16%, COIN -7.2% on the day. If CPI confirms the inflation acceleration, expect more rotation into value, utilities, and energy. The Russell 2000 fell 3.5% but is still up 14.2% YTD -- small-caps benefit from domestic revenue exposure but suffer from rate sensitivity.
The 10-year Treasury above 4.5% is the gravitational force on multiples. At these levels, long-duration growth stocks face DCF compression. If the FOMC dot plot shifts hawkish and CPI comes in hot, 4.7%+ on the 10-year is plausible by end of week -- which would be the highest since October 2023. Conversely, a dovish Warsh surprise or cool CPI could snap yields back and trigger a sharp tech bounce.
Entry: Current level (~$307), or on any dip below $300 Monday morning if the broader market opens weak.
Thesis: WWDC is a genuine catalyst this year. The AI Siri overhaul, if delivered as leaked, repositions Apple as a consumer AI platform with 2.2 billion active devices as distribution. Wedbush's "toll collector" framing is the right mental model -- Apple doesn't need to build frontier AI, just monetize access. AAPL has been the most resilient Mag 7 name this year (+13% YTD) and held up relatively well on Friday (-1.3%). If Siri lands, the $317 ATH is in play.
Risk: A hot CPI on Wednesday reverses any Monday pop. Apple has a long history of WWDC sell-the-news action. Do not hold through CPI if AAPL has already moved 3%+ on Monday. Also: FOMC tone on Tuesday could inject volatility before the keynote's impact is fully priced.
Entry: Scale in between $370-$390. The stock is 22% off its all-time high ($495) and sitting near the low end of its post-earnings range.
Thesis: The selloff is a reaction to expectations management, not deteriorating fundamentals. Q2 AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8 billion with $30 billion in bookings means Broadcom is supply-constrained, not demand-constrained. Q3 guide of $16 billion AI semis (+200% YoY) implies the $100 billion FY27 target is tracking ahead. The $73 billion AI backlog is contracted, not aspirational. Analyst consensus target: $484.54 (26% upside). 42 analysts: 34 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 5 Hold.
Risk: If the macro selloff continues -- particularly if CPI prints 4.5%+ and yields spike -- high-multiple semis will face further compression regardless of fundamentals. AVGO's 81x trailing P/E leaves no room for error. Scale in slowly; don't catch the whole knife in one trade.