The Dow cleared its February all-time high on Friday, closing at 50,285 after a +2.1% week. The S&P 500 posted its longest winning streak since late 2023, gaining +0.9% while the Russell 2000 led at +2.7%. The Nasdaq lagged at +0.45%, dragged by post-earnings softness in NVDA and GOOGL, but breadth was excellent: equal-weight S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 both hit new highs. The story of the week was the macro backdrop: the 30-year yield touched 5.19% (highest since 2007) on Tuesday before retreating, oil cratered 4.4% to $96.60 on Iran deal hopes, and Trump declared a framework peace agreement "largely negotiated" by Saturday evening.
| Index | Friday Close | Weekly Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 50,285.66 | +2.1% | New all-time closing high |
| S&P 500 | ~7,474 | +0.9% | Longest win streak since late 2023 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,293.10 | +0.45% | Near record; megacap drag |
| Russell 2000 | -- | +2.7% | Small caps leading rotation |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.57% | -2.5 bps | Hit 4.69% intra-week high |
| 30Y Treasury | ~5.12% | -- | Touched 5.19%, highest since 2007 |
| WTI Crude | $96.60 | -4.4% | Iran deal hopes hammered crude |
| Ticker | Friday Close | Weekly Signal | Key Story |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $215.33 | -1.9% Fri | Record Q1: $81.6B rev (+85% YoY), beat by $2.5B. Q2 guide $91B. $80B buyback. Stock sold on the news. |
| AAPL | $308.82 | +1.3% Fri | Approaching ATH ($311.40). Strong demand narrative intact; 3nm supply constraints persist. |
| MSFT | $418.57 | Flat | Still down 13.3% YTD per Zacks. Sub-$420 is a zone worth watching. |
| GOOGL | $382.97 | -1.2% Fri | Down solidly for the week. Lagged among megacaps despite strong Q1 print last month. |
| AMZN | $266.32 | -0.8% Fri | Near ATH ($278.56). AWS backlog narrative strong. Quiet week. |
| META | $610.26 | +0.5% Fri | Down 10% over past month. $125-145B capex overhang. Threads 150M DAUs, 8M GenAI advertisers. |
| TSLA | $426.01 | +0.9% wk | FSD launched in China. Cup-with-handle forming; $453.40 buy point. SpaceX IPO spillover. |
| ASML | $1,632.90 | +8.7% wk | Week's standout. Reclaimed buy point, bounced off 10-week line. +52.6% YTD. |
| TSM | $404.52 | -0.6% Fri | Quiet. Massive market cap ($57.8T TWD). Supply constraints remain the story. |
| AVGO | $414.14 | Flat | Holding near highs. META custom silicon deal continues to underpin thesis. |
| CRWV | $105.49 | -1.9% Fri | CEO sold 200K more shares this week. Structurally damaged; insider selling across C-suite. |
Friday % change shown where weekly not available. ASML and TSLA show full-week returns per IBD data.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $81.62B | $79.12B | +$2.50B |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.87 | $1.76 | +$0.11 |
| Data Center Rev | $75.2B | -- | +92% YoY |
| Q2 Revenue Guide | $91B +/-2% | $86.1B | +5.7% |
| Gross Margin | 75.0% | -- | Stable |
Plus an $80B additional buyback authorization and a 25x dividend increase to $0.25/share. The beat-and-raise was unambiguous, yet NVDA slipped ~2% the next day -- classic "sell the news" after a massive run into earnings. Jensen's quote about "the largest infrastructure expansion in human history" isn't hyperbole given hyperscaler capex commitments north of $130B this quarter alone.
For the semi rotation plan: NVDA at $215.33 is in the entry zone you defined. The post-earnings fade is the kind of digestion period that often resolves higher. The question is whether to wait for a cleaner base or start scaling in Tuesday.
US markets closed. Global markets open. Futures trade normally Sunday and Monday. If the Iran MoU is finalized over the weekend, expect a gap-up in futures.
| Date | Company | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 5/28 | Marvell (MRVL) | AI custom silicon bellwether. Semi thesis read-through. At 52-week high ($198.40). |
| Wed 5/28 | Dell (DELL) | AI server demand proxy. Already surged +16.8% Friday on analyst upgrades. |
| Wed 5/28 | Costco (COST) | Consumer health barometer. Fuel price impact and membership trends in focus. |
| Wed 5/28 | Elastic (ESTC) | Enterprise search/AI observability. |
| Wed 5/28 | Viasat (VSAT) | Q4/FY2026 results after close. |
Marvell is the one to watch. If MRVL confirms accelerating custom silicon demand and strong AI networking (similar to NVDA's data center numbers), it validates the broader semi supply chain thesis -- positive read-through for AVGO and TSM.
Trump posted Saturday that the deal is "largely negotiated" -- a 30-60 day MoU for extended ceasefire, with some sanction relief and frozen asset release. The critical sticking points remain: who controls the Strait of Hormuz (Iran insists on sovereignty, US says that's "unfeasible") and Iran's nuclear program. Rubio warned of a "Plan B" if talks fail. Oil dropped 4.4% this week on deal optimism. If a deal materializes, crude could drop another $10-15/barrel rapidly, which would be a major tailwind for equities. If talks collapse, oil goes the other way fast -- $120+ is back on the table.
The 30-year yield at 5.19% is a 19-year high. The drivers: Iran war inflation (energy), ballooning US fiscal deficits, and rising expectations the Fed may hike rather than cut. Goldman Sachs flagged that rising bond yields are "increasingly vulnerable" to disrupting equity gains. Mortgage rates jumped to 6.51%, a 9-month high. This is the primary risk factor for growth stocks -- if yields resume climbing, the math on high-multiple tech gets harder.
May PMIs were dire: France contracted at the fastest pace since 2020, Germany shrank for a second straight month, UK contracted for the first time in a year. ING called out "increasing risks of a technical recession in the eurozone." This matters for ASML (European-listed, euro-denominated revenue) and for global demand assumptions.
Equal-weight indexes crushed cap-weight this week (RSP +2.5%, QQQE +3.5% vs. Nasdaq +0.45%). The Russell 2000 led at +2.7%. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was up 3.6% despite NVDA dragging. Money is rotating into semis, industrials, healthcare, and financials -- and within tech, away from megacap toward mid-cap AI plays. This is healthy breadth, not a warning sign.
Entry: NVDA at $215.33, currently in the $210-220 zone you defined. Markets closed Monday for Memorial Day; first execution window is Tuesday May 27.
Thesis: NVDA just delivered the cleanest beat-and-raise of earnings season. Revenue growing 85% YoY at $81.6B scale with 75% gross margins is unprecedented. The post-earnings selloff is textbook digestion. $91B Q2 guide (+5.7% above consensus) signals acceleration, not deceleration. The $80B buyback creates a floor. Among the semi supply chain names (TSM, ASML, AMAT, AVGO), NVDA is the most direct AI capex beneficiary and the most liquid position.
Risk: A hot PCE on Wednesday could reignite bond yields and pressure all growth names. If the Iran deal collapses, oil spikes and yields resume climbing. NVDA at 25x forward earnings is no longer "cheap" -- you're paying for the growth. Size the initial tranche accordingly (30% of the $300K plan = $90K was the target).
Execution note: Consider splitting the Tuesday entry across NVDA and TSM as the first two positions, then wait for MRVL earnings Wednesday evening before adding AVGO and ASML in the back half of the week. MRVL's results will either confirm or challenge the custom silicon demand narrative.
Level: $1,632.90. Reclaimed the cup-with-handle buy point ($1,531.98) and is actionable from the high-handle alternate entry at $1,603.49 per IBD.
Thesis: +52.6% YTD, bounced off the 10-week line with an 8.7% weekly gain. EUV monopoly is the structural story. The European recession risk is a headwind on sentiment but doesn't change the demand picture -- hyperscaler orders are booked years out.
Risk: Extended from the buy point. Could pull back if PCE reignites yields or if European macro worsens. Your allocation plan had 20% ($60K) for ASML. Consider a partial position Tuesday with room to add on a pullback toward $1,600.
CEO sold another 200K shares this week. Insider selling now spans CEO, CTO, CFO, and COO. The stock has been cut in half from its high ($187 to $105). DA Davidson downgraded. The original plan said "stay away" -- that call was right.