48 teams. 104 matches. $1.26 billion in prediction volume. Your group-by-group breakdown with live Kalshi and Polymarket odds.
This is the first 48-team World Cup in history, up from 32. Twelve groups of four. The top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance to a Round of 32, then a single-elimination bracket through to the Final. 104 matches across 39 days, played in 16 cities spanning three countries. The Final takes place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on July 19. BTS is confirmed for the halftime show — the first-ever musical performance at a World Cup Final.
And for the first time, this World Cup has a parallel story playing out on prediction markets. Over $1.26 billion has already been traded on Polymarket alone, making this the most liquid sports prediction market in history. Here’s where the money is going.
Implied probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket, plus what a $100 bet would pay out.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | $100 Payout (K) | $100 Payout (P) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
🇫🇷France |
~18% | 17% | $552 | $557 |
🇪🇸Spain |
~17.5% | 17% | $569 | $557 |
🇬🇧England |
~11.5% | 11.2% | $863 | $861 |
🇧🇷Brazil |
~10% | 9.7% | $989 | $1,034 |
🇵🇹Portugal |
~10% | 11% | $989 | $909 |
🇦🇷Argentina |
~9.7% | 8.5% | $1,033 | $1,171 |
🇩🇪Germany |
~5.4% | 5.4% | $1,838 | $1,868 |
🇳🇱Netherlands |
~3.8% | 3.5% | $2,601 | $2,855 |
🇳🇴Norway |
~2.5% | 2.6% | $4,069 | $3,883 |
France and Spain have been swapping the top spot since markets opened in May 2025. France took over on April 21 and has held since. Total prediction market volume: $1.26 billion on Polymarket alone.
The biggest payout spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket on a $100 bet — same team, different prices.
$200K+ traded. Award presented July 20 at MetLife Stadium.
Prediction market probabilities layered onto every group. Where available, Kalshi and Polymarket advance/win-group odds are shown.
The tournament opener. Mexico hosts and carries home-crowd energy, but South Korea and Czechia make this a competitive four-way fight. No clear market dominant favorite.
Switzerland is the clear market pick at 53.5% to win the group. Canada plays their opener in Toronto with massive home support, but the market says they’re the third-most-likely to advance. Qatar is given almost no chance.
The true Group of Death. Brazil is the favorite, but Morocco — 2022 semifinalists who stunned Portugal and Spain — make this terrifying. Haiti makes their first-ever World Cup appearance. Scotland are the wild card.
A favorable draw for the hosts. The USA should advance comfortably, but Türkiye is the dangerous sleeper — a squad with genuine knockout-round talent parked in a group where they could finish second.
Germany dominates the market at 70.8% to advance. Curaçao makes World Cup history as the smallest nation ever to qualify by population (~156K). Ecuador is the second seed by the market’s eye.
Netherlands leads at 54% to top the group, but Japan’s 26.5% line tells you this is competitive. Japan have been giant-killers in recent World Cups. Sweden are fading but never to be ignored in a group stage.
Belgium at 68% suggests the market sees this as a comfortable path. Egypt at 19% is the second banana. Iran have been tricky opponents in past World Cups but the market isn’t buying it here.
The most dominant favorite in any group. Spain at 77% to win on Kalshi — no other team in any group commands that level of market confidence. They’re also co-favorites to win the whole tournament. Uruguay is a solid second seed but the gulf is massive.
France at 68.5% with just a 3% spread between platforms. The real story is Norway at 22% — Erling Haaland’s first World Cup is the neutral’s favorite subplot. Iraq qualified through the intercontinental playoffs.
Argentina at 75.5% to advance — the highest single-team advance probability in the tournament. The defending champions should cruise. Austria is the clear second seed. Jordan makes its World Cup debut.
Portugal leads at 65–67%. Colombia is a strong second. But the story here is Uzbekistan: a World Cup debutant that triggered $4 million in Polymarket volume in a single day as a meme bet. The crypto crowd discovered international football.
The Group of Experience. England leads but Croatia — 2018 finalists, 2022 semifinalists — are perpetually dangerous. Modrić may be playing his final World Cup. Panama and Ghana round out a group where upsets always feel possible.
Six takeaways from $1.26 billion in prediction market volume.
Mexico:
Canada:
United States:
The Final takes place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on July 19, 2026.